What is Predictive Analysis?
Predictive Analytics considers what is yet known about the future of an organization based on what has already taken place and information used to integrate new employees into those schematics. There are multiple paths to making that determination including data mining, statistics, modeling, machine learning, and artificial intelligence. Predictive modeling is the basis of understanding how to analyze a number of presumptions that are likely to influence future results. In order to make that determination, a large number of facts come into consideration. This methodology uses data mining and probability to forecast outcomes. Once details have been collected for relevant anticipations, a variety of models can be developed including machine learning, artificial intelligence, and statistics.
Machine Learning Model: Machine learning is a core sub-area of artificial intelligence; it enables computers to get into a mode of self-learning without being explicitly programmed. The annotated explanation of how it works is that “When exposed to new data, these computer programs are enabled to learn, grow, change, and develop by themselves.”. Machine learning is becoming more and more standard as tools are engineered to replace the human learning function. Arriving at the final product is achieved when the program within the software builds a better version than previously existed. (Simplilearn)
IA Model: AI models adapt what we know about how the brain works into data processed by systems. The human brain complexities are commonly compartmentalized with focus given to a series of cerebral functions within each AI type. The idea behind IA is to remove the subjective factors in solving complex problems and designing solutions that need an evaluation of varying source statistics. The primary motive driving the use of AI is to reach the level of computer performance where technology regulates data instead of humans, in pursuit of information devoid of anthropomorphic judgment. (Forbes)
Statistical Model: Statistical modeling is a category of numerical computation or mathematics organization of input which embodies a set of assumed generation of some sample data, and similar specifics from a greater whole. A statistical method represents, “a quantity by an average and a standard deviation”, of data as a subset. (Xlstat)
The best way to measure the probability of a modeling outcome is to create, test, and validate the strategy which requires software solutions. Most predictive analysis programs are accompanied by a free trial period to provide buyers with the opportunity to make an informed resolution before committing to the purchase.
Predictive Analytics Impacts to HR
Estimating who will make their performance quota, provide excellent customer service, have higher than average error rates, safely operate machinery, or spend budget funds efficiently are examples of analysis applied in human resources. These are critical indicators that drive organizational commitments and administering these outcomes are at the very core of how predictive analytics impact employee supervision. It’s vital that HR managers realize that forecasting human behavior is a mature science with decades of experience and time to hone approaches, utilize algorithms, and allocate resources to sensitivity encompassing private data. Analytics are useful in acquiring insight into filtering talent into and out of the organization, exact interchanges that occur in administrative processes, conditions that have an impression on these flows, and protocol related communication that is distributed to staff.
Improvements in the job market provide candidates and team members unprecedented power to determine cultural shifts in the workplace. Discerning how cautionary means easily transfer from decision makers to new hires is a key element of operational planning. As talent acquisition trends favor job seekers, organizations are saturated with new skill sets which affect human resource policies because leaders are now adapting to the shifts in talent rather than new employees embracing company traditions. This increases business transition risks and the exercise of hiring has to be informed by solutions derived from analyzing behavioral predictions in order for organizations to flourish. The ability to effectively forecast who will thrive or fail to survive when procedures and policies change is paramount to overall commercial success. Getting ahead of the curve is now dependent on HR predictive analytics as a significant big data tool.
Innovation has obvious advantages, but the disadvantages (reaching beyond the fear of the unknown) are more discreet. Data security risks mitigated through predictive analytics can include an examination of integrity-based behavioral indicators of team members and leadership, thus reducing overall data security costs. Discretion is acute as security remains, “at the forefront of discussion and risk analysis has become the basis for strategic security planning in many organizations”. (Security Magazine)
Imagine being able to know exactly where to apply resources directly linked to human capital administration paired with analysis of avoiding outside security breaches committed by sophisticated cybercriminals. This is a world-class improvement in the relationship between HR and security personnel, forming a much-needed connection between departments with related, but separate purposes. Internal security should be one of an organization’s primary considerations since “It’s the threats that originate from inside that are much more difficult to prevent and detect using one-size-fits-all security measures”. (Digital Guardian) Herein is where HR predictive analytics and big data have a greater relativity exceeding using software to strategically decide right role fit within an organization.
Researching solutions require professional training and mastery of the staffing perspectives of compliance, risk, and company culture. It’s of utmost importance that the HR predictive analytics end user critically interprets, reflects, adjusts, and guides the outcomes of the models using his or her skill, experience, and knowledge of the problem and organization. Software solutions are useful in eliminating emotive decision-making by substituting calculation, which reduces mistakes in personnel-related service.
Predictive Business Intelligence (BI) Solutions
Execution of Predictive Analysis in HR requires the understanding of role assignment according to who handles which data type and how the specifics are handled during every point in the methodology.
Collecting data: Initiating a predictive analysis of human resources begins with data collection. The factors in determining who performs this effort involve putting the responsibility in the capable hands of those who understand attracting, hiring, developing, promoting, and retaining talent. This will assist with establishing the foundation used for forecasting the other components of the process. Input sources will more than likely exist in the file forms contained in excel, databases, text files, etc. The more the details vary in density and the greater the quantity of relevant data the better. Collections begin with measures you’re already using and seeking evidence across multiple sources of information.
Data Preparation: The quality of the data used drives the analytical practice. Careful attention should be allocated to determining information quality and forward moving strategies for repairing unfavorable conditions such as incomplete facts and handling computations falling outside of the precise need. One way to mitigate poor quality is to explore the nuances, which will improve data provision.
Developing a Model: Data training (realizing potentially anticipated relationships), selecting the right algorithm, and knowing what the figures represent within is more important than anything else during this stage of the predictive analysis project. An example of knowledge that will inform the model is understanding the number of team members with specific experience will be necessary for the future, logistics of requisites, and if the number of employees is sufficient. The second part of development is testing to ensure it works. Diversity and inclusion should be respected when choosing your analytical HR model.
Performance Improvement: This is where its decided whether or not a different model is required or if more or less augmentation is mandatory. If significant time and attention are given to data collection and preparation, this step may be eliminated altogether. “For example, from a hiring perspective, both the pre-hire effectiveness (which recruitment channels give us the candidates with the right profile?) and post-hire effectiveness (which recruitment channels gave us the best candidates?) should be constantly evaluated”. (Sloan Review)
Report Generation: Selecting who will generate the report relies on having the experience and integrity to show both the positive and negative results of the preceding work. Transcribing, transferring, and accessing intelligence are all requisites in report preparation. Editing the report includes revising ambiguous, illegible, incomplete, and inconsistent results. Look to high-performing leadership within the organization to verify or lend credibility to your finding.
Presenting the Report: The final step to everything is releasing the report and determining how it’s released. Make sure to draw reviewer, reader, and listener attention the text and illustrations contained in the report that highlight the objectives, outcomes, and final recommendations. Design, formats, platforms, publication, and audience dictate the report release details. Delivery is critical in making sure the previous hard work is not in vain.
Project Manager: Successfully implementation of the predictive analysis from beginning to end requires governance of each stage of the process to keep the progress moving along the timelines and budget spending allocated to the project. Another significant function the project manager performs is either knowing when any component of the effort falls outside of company compliance or consulting the compliance department as the effort advances.
The business and HR roles can be assigned to the same person or they may be many different people dependent on project complexity, the size of the effort, and the volume of lines of data analyzed or the multiple types of data accessed. When broken down in this fashion, hopefully, it’s apparent that not every role in the HR predictive analytics project requires a forecasting specialist and/or an analytics expert (Talent Analytics)
Is Your Organization Ready for HR Predictive BI?
It is important to comprehend employees’ social influence for the purpose of preventing repercussions or allowing talent to be drained from your company’s internal network. Given that human error increases as attempts to intelligently process a large subset of variables rises, our minds are not equipped to accurately identify exact predeterminations. Casting right role functions within organizations to keep up with competitors is a key factor in becoming an industry leader or falling behind and becoming irrelevant in today’s market. Successful HR oversight means correctly deciding who fulfills critical tasks and without predictive analytics, those considerations left to cause and effect judgments formed by humans will always include excess influences, like personal preferences and bias. Alternatively, advancements in mathematics and computer science enable algorithms to account for thousands of related and seemingly unrelated data sets.
The question that organizational executives need to ask themselves is whether they want to continue to leave exceptional decisive action to human judgment and tradition or if it’s preferred to upgrade rules surrounding employee management through computation. Key takeaways to uncover the right conclusions in timing the use of analytics should be evidence-based in action and findings unique to your organization. Do not literally adapt what other organizations have experience or executed. What may be right for another organization may be less relevant to your business and organizational culture? Contemplate what you’ve learned, as it can take years to discover the exact metrics and analytics best to integrate into your workforce administration process.
About the Author
Pierce Ivory, Marketing Director at Advance Systems Inc.
Contact Pierce — pierce.ivory@advancesystemsinc.com
